Author David Louis Edelman (Infoquake) gives nine compelling reasons why he believes Hollywood and the Academy Awards will soon go the way of the dinosaur. In fact, he predicts that the bones of the industry will soon be covered over by a fine layer of dust from multiple assessiblity and newer methods of presentation and product development that allows even the novice to be competitive in a market that was at one time ruled by the mega-studio system.
On our own weekly show over the past two years we have talked about several of these same aspects of marketing, product demand and using the internet model. Others are also seeing the viability of these other avenues and just how stagnant the Hollywood model has become.
Here are David’s nine reasons for the demise of Hollywood as we know it:
The obvious scapegoats. The movie theater chains made a huge tactical mistake in the ’80s and ’90s by putting an emphasis on building lots of multiplexes with smaller screens. The end result is that I’ve got a high-def TV and Surround Sound setup in my basement that rivals many of these lower end venues. It’s certainly good enough for your garden variety comedy/drama, and does a damn fine job on the mega-blockbusters too.
It’s an interesting phenomenon that now Hollywood’s profits are teetering, the A-list stars are commanding higher prices than ever. Why? Well, the less certain you are of making back your investment on a film, the more you’re willing to spend to make sure you can get that return. Ben Stiller might not bring in nearly as large a crowd as, say, Robin Williams did back in the day, but at least he’s still bringing in a crowd.
Robert Rodriguez wanted to give artist Frank Miller co-directing credit for his (brilliant, bloody) Sin City. The Director’s Guild of America wouldn’t let him. So, figured Rodriguez, who the f*%k needs to be part of the Director’s Guild of America? He quit. It’s this kind of rigid bullshit that causes A-listers like George Lucas, Peter Jackson, and James Cameron to snub the system and work outside it. Look for more defectors from the Hollywood unions as their relevance plummets.
Similarly, who wants to deal with expensive union workers in Hollywood when you can hire some non-union worker in Fargo, or Tallahassee, or Mexico City for that matter? The spotlight creative jobs in Hollywood will stay local (for a while, at least), but filmmakers will discover that you can outsource almost everything else. Why pay x for postproduction in Hollywood when you can get the same quality for 10% of x in Bollywood?
More multiplexes + higher salaries + union costs = more expensive films. What happens to movie studios when they need to get more and more butts in the seats to make back their investment? The same thing that happens to U.S. Presidential candidates once they make it through the primary season — they go scurrying for the middle. The studios and the movie chains start falling back on “sure bets†— sequels, popular franchises, formulaic comedies with bankable stars. Quality (which was never all that high to begin with) dips precipitously.
Films that once required a film lab, a team of special effects gurus, and a roomful of dedicated Silicon Graphics workstations are becoming the province of some dude with a $500 camcorder and a Mac. There’s only so much gee-whiz spectacle and panache you can fit into a 90-minute film, and Moore’s Law says that desktop computers will be hitting that threshold in a few years.
In the old world, the only way to get your movie seen was to worm your way into the slippery network of nationwide movie chains, most of which won’t screen small, independently produced films. Festivals like Sundance made some headway in the ’90s opening film up to the smaller fish, but again it’s computer technology that’s made the difference in distribution. Why put up with the hassle of going through the traditional channels to distribute your movie when you can distribute it on the Internet via BitTorrent or YouTube, or just sell the DVD on your website?
Just like you couldn’t get your film seen in the olden days without studio distribution, you couldn’t get your film heard about without studio marketing money and big media tie-ins too. That’s going away. Good-bye, massive Burger King promotions — hello MySpace guerrilla marketing.
The MPAA has been gearing up its anti-piracy machinery in preparation for a similar onslaught that the music industry experienced. And like with the RIAA and the music biz, the studios will never win by threatening to sue the pants off their audience.
To read the full detail of David’s message about “The End of Hollywood” check out his website HERE!
Bob says
I entirely agree. It takes something impressive to get me to go to the cinema these days.
And when I say impressive I don’t necessarily mean big budget. I mean stylish, unusual and/or funny (INTELLIGENTLY funny – spare me from Ben Stiller)
Jeremy from Seattle says
Free works for me too…I saw Wild Hogs in the Theater with free tix, and enjoyed it. But I don’t pay to see crap like that in the theater.
Lindy Rae says
Once the movies hit 10 bucks; we stopped going regularly. Too many bad ones; and with it being $30 a shot; plus the gold encrusted popcorn; for get it.
We don’t miss the stuff that should be seen on the big screen; but every relationship/plot driven movie goes on the Netflix list.
Macbezz says
Definately agree here. It better be something special to get me out to see a movie in the theater. Or have a free ticket. The last movie I payed for was Children of Men. And it was well worth it.
GazerBeam says
I’m a poor bastard. As such, I don’t have the money for a spectacular, ginaminous home theatre system, so I sheel out a few clams to see the flicks in the theatre. Don’t get me wrong, I remembre when movies were $3 on opening day, but still… Missing Serenity or Ghost Rider on the Big Screen(tm) would have just been a shame, so I pay a little extra. Plus, I’m impatient. (Spiderman can’t get here fast enough)