Video game sales could see a drop for 2009 according to USA Today.
Analyst Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities predicts the video game sector will lose seven percent of its sales for the year.
This is significant because until now, video game sales were seen as recession proof.
In May, Pachter says he had hoped for software sales to increase by 4%, but now he expects them to actually drop 5%. Coupled with decreases in console sales, the total industry revenues will drop by 6.8%, he estimates.
“While we originally forecast sales growth in 2009 and are disappointed by the likelihood that the year will end up showing a decline in sales, we continue to believe that the video game industry will return to sustainable growth in 2010,” he wrote in the industry note issued Wednesday. “In our view, the decline in 2009 occurred as consumers experienced ‘console fatigue’ in the middle part of the year, and we think that the recent hardware price cuts and better release slate will drive double-digit growth in 2010.”
I blame the lack of dedicated server support in Modern Warefare 2.
I don’t know if this is true. I know I haven’t bought much this year until recently. Borderlands is worth the money and I am going to buy Left 4 Dead 2 when it comes out. Seems like all the good games come out at the years end.
Maybe Netflix-like services for game rentals are finally starting to take off and affecting sales. Some games are worth $60, most are not. The second-hand business might be taking a bite too.
My guess is that the people who were all excited about new systems over the past few years have already bought them, and that Gamefly-type services and GameStop-style resale stores are more appealing options for non-hardcore gamers. Also, if my particular group of friends is anything to go by, there’s a bit of a swing back toward desktop (and tabletop) gaming as well that’s probably cutting into console game sales.
The real thing to remember is that the companies aren’t losing money, they’re just not making as much as they did last year. It probably makes upper management and shareholders a little sad, but it’s far from tragic.