Despite very impressive numbers coming from “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End,” “Shrek the Third” and “Spider-Man 3,” the major six movie studios are forcasting a downward trend for its upcoming summer theatrical releases overall. Studio execs’ concerns were tempered a bit with the news that Disney’s “Pirates” surpassed all previous Memorial Day weekend records raising the box office bar to new heights, but they are taking the long view between now and the big end of year holiday push, and they see a period of lull that worries them, if only slightly.
The next big box office giants coming are the highly anticipated “Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer” in just two weeks and the mega release of Michael Bay’s “Transformers” over the big July 4th holiday in America. If box office is as high as expected, then the studios will breath a sigh of relief, with hopes of being in the black by year’s end.
The other good news for Hollywood is the overseas response to these films. Because of the international market, “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” has already pushed passed the $401 million mark after only one weekend in release. Mark Zoradi, president of Walt Disney Studios Motion Picture Marketing and Distribution, said he was “as pleased as could be” about the opening, given the tough competition. If things continue as is, “Pirates” is already well on its way of surpassing the first film in the franchise that closed out with a total of over $650 million globally, but still has a long way to go to edge near “Dead Man’s Chest” which has garnered more than $1 billion internationally.
I’m not real sure what the studios are so gravely concerned about. While it is true that filmmaking costs have increased significantly, this year’s box office take, while not the greatest when all films made are taken into account, is certainly not causing as much pain as some execs would like us to believe. In today’s market all it takes is four or five films to make $500 million or more on the domestic and international market and the industry has had a banner year. What may be lost on the cost of a smaller film, can more than be retrieved from films like “Shrek” and “Spider Man.”
And, lest we forget, besides the films mentioned above, there are a whole array of films between now and December that hold the promise of huge box office including, “Day Watch,” “Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix,” “The Simpsons Movie” and “The Bourne Ultimatum” — not to mention possible underdogs that may surprise the critics such as “Ocean’s Thirteen,” “Resident Evil: Extinction” “Evan Almighty” and “Underdog”. Plus, who knows how many “Little Miss Sunshine” flicks might be on the horizon for the Summer of 2007?
2007 is measuring up to be a big box office year for the studios and that explains why, while they may be a bit leary about the theatrical system’s future, at present they are not overly worried.
